With the college football season underway it is a good time to discuss how to approach the early part of the season. I will be the first to admit that college football betting is exciting, and no matter who plays the first game we will want to be in action. We need to be careful though. Early season college football betting is exciting, but it is also dangerous.
The early season college football lines put out by sportsbooks are usually weak. The problem for us as bettors is that we don’t know always know where the weakness lies. In college football there is no preseason, and teams come into the season with a lot of question marks. The lines are based on last year’s results, returning starters, etc.
The problem with all of this is that the information is weak. We don’t know how the new players on the teams will perform. We don’t know how the players will react to a new season. It is all a guessing game between the linemaker and the bettor in the early part of the college football season.
Very often in the early part of the college football season the bettor could have more information than the bookmaker. Lines are very soft in the early part of the season because no one really knows how the teams will perform. The “wise guys” will often hammer games early in the college football season because they believe the information they have is better than what the linemaker has. Very often that is correct. For instance, the Bovada NFL lines tend to be much closer than the NCAA lines early on in the season.
Big line moves early in the season will very often go the way of the bettor. The linemaker catches up quickly, however; so don’t get too carried away. The other end of that spectrum is that sometimes the information is just not strong enough early in the season to justify a big play. Wise guys will sometimes pound a game based on information that they think is good. Sometimes it is strong but sometimes it is not. It is best to be a little careful early in the season even though you will see a lot of line movement.
The best advice for the early college football season is to pick your spots. Limit your plays to your very strongest. Later in the season you will have many more chances to play a lot of games on the card. Stick to your top information plays early in the year. I have found that to be the most successful early season strategy. I like playing a lot of games later in the season but really like to focus on strong information plays early on. Remember that the college football season stretches well into November. Don’t get carried away early in the season. Keep your focus, limit your plays, and be around for the rest of the season.
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